Indices
- Dow 49,625, +186or+0.37%.
- Nasdaq 22,886, +339or+1.50%.
- S&P 6,909, +73or+1.06%.
- MSCI EAFA 3149.74, +8.23 or +0.26%.
- USD10Y 4.086%, -7.9bpor-1.89%.
- WTI Crude $65.78/bbl, +$3.33 or +5.32%.
February 20 Market Recap
Markets posted a solid week, buoyed by the Supreme Court’s ruling that the President’s tariffs were unconstitutional. The administration quickly responded by implementing new tariffs of up to 15% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. These measures will remain in place for 150 days, after which Congressional approval will be required for any extension.
The more consequential development, however, came from the Federal Reserve. Minutes from the January meeting showed broad agreement among policymakers to pause further rate cuts until inflation demonstrates clearer progress. Notably, some voting members even suggested that additional rate hikes later this year cannot be ruled out. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report reinforced that caution, with both headline and core inflation edging higher. According to the FedWatch Tool, markets are not pricing in a rate cut until the June FOMC meeting, and even then, the probability remains close to a coin flip.
Geopolitical tensions warrant attention. The United States has amassed significant Naval and Air Force assets around Iran the largest such buildup since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Historically, force concentrations of that scale are not merely symbolic. Energy markets are taking notice, with WTI crude oil rising more than 5% last week. Any escalation in the region would likely introduce renewed volatility across global markets.
Closer to home, Mexico experienced a sharp escalation in cartel violence after government forces killed a senior kingpin in Jalisco. Retaliatory actions included road blockades and arson targeting vehicles and commercial properties. The U.S. has issued shelter-in-place advisories for multiple Mexican states.
The investment landscape is constantly evolving, but long-term capital appreciation favors those who remain positioned for what lies ahead rather than reacting to what just occurred. Our approach remains grounded in thoughtful risk management and strategic exposure — always looking forward. If recent developments raise questions about your portfolio or broader plan, we welcome the conversation.
Market Data Points Next Week
- Monday – N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday – February Consumer Confidence. Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Lucid (LCID).
- Wednesday – N/A. Earnings: Lowe’s (LOW), TJ Companies (TJX), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM)
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: N/A.
- Friday – January Producer Price Index (delayed). Earnings: N/A.
If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BITB, ETHE, ITIB, NVDA, RIVN.