Weekly Market Recap
Market Snapshot
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 49,447 | +1,262 (+2.62%) |
| Nasdaq | 24,468 | +1,566 (+6.84%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,126 | +310 (+4.55%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,111.50 | +199.26 (+6.84%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.246% | -4.7 bp (-1.10%) |
| WTI Crude | $84.00/bbl | -$12.57 (-13.02%) |
Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed?
Despite Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz completely open¹ on Friday and sending markets into a buying frenzy, the détente lasted barely 48 hours. News broke over the weekend that the U.S. Navy had fired upon, boarded, and taken possession of an Iranian oil tanker.² Talks in Islamabad, set to feature the diplomatic talents of Vice President Vance, have been called off by the Iranians.³ Earlier in the day, Iran had fired upon commercial shipping⁴ entering the Strait. And to top it off, the President reiterated his threat to target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants,⁵ if Iran does not agree to the U.S. peace plan immediately.
This monstrous rally from the lows over the last three weeks has been based on overly optimistic projections that the Strait would open soon and the war would end promptly, neither of which have been supported by anything more than a tenuous, soon-to-be-over two-week truce and hopeful words from the administration. In all, it has been a rally borne of complacency. With the Strait now closed again, oil trading up +8% to $90 per barrel, and the very real threat of rising inflation, how will markets digest this news?
Economics & Earnings
March wholesale prices came in hotter than expected, and at this point the inflation story is no longer a possibility, it has arrived. Headline PPI surged to a three-year high of +4.0% year-over-year, up from +3.5% last month, while core PPI rose to +3.6% from +3.5%. Combined with March's blistering CPI print and Fed minutes explicitly flagging growing openness to rate hikes, the data is telling a clear and uncomfortable story. With the Strait now closed again and oil already surging back toward $90 per barrel, next month's numbers will likely be worse.
Q1 earnings season kicked off on a broadly positive note. Goldman Sachs (GS) easily beat expectations, the money center banks delivered mixed results, and BlackRock (BLK) had another strong quarter. PepsiCo (PEP), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), and Netflix (NFLX) all reported good numbers. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) deserves special mention, delivering its fourth consecutive record revenue quarter alongside a staggering +64.6% year-over-year earnings gain. Combined with ASML's⁶ strong results, the outlook for the Magnificent Seven and the broader AI trade remains compelling.
The Week Ahead
Economic reports are light, with March U.S. Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims the only items of note. Earnings season, however, hits with full force. Featured this week are Tesla (TSLA), several airlines, two defense companies, two railroads, and two of the top twelve market-cap weighted industrial giants.
- Monday No major economic releases. Earnings: Alaska Airlines (ALK).
- Tuesday March U.S. Retail Sales. Earnings: Northrop Grumman (NOC), United Airlines (UAL).
- Wednesday No major economic releases. Earnings: Boeing (BA), GE Vernova (GEV), Vertiv (VRT), Tesla (TSLA), CSX (CSX), Lam Research (LRCX), Southwest Airlines (LUV).
- Thursday Initial Jobless Claims, April U.S. Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI. Earnings: American Airlines (AAL), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Union Pacific (UNP), Intel (INTC).
- Friday April Final Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: Procter & Gamble (PG).
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility, particularly those driven by rapidly shifting geopolitical developments, can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
¹ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwydexp39ddo
² https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/19/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-hormuz
⁶ https://apple.news/AAa1nnXzvSKu1U8b8VzV8mw
P.S. If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ACHR, BITB, MSFT, TCPC.