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Geopolitics and Inflation Weigh on Markets

Geopolitics and Inflation Weigh on Markets

March 23, 2026

Weekly Market Recap

Market Snapshot

Index / AssetLevelWeekly Change
Dow Jones45,577-981 (-2.11%)
Nasdaq21,647-458 (-2.07%)
S&P 5006,506-126 (-1.90%)
MSCI EAFE2,889.96-6.81 (-0.24%)
U.S. 10-Year Treasury4.391%+10.6 bps (+2.47%)
WTI Crude$98.32/bbl-$0.32 (-0.32%)

Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed; U.S., Iran Tensions Escalate

Despite a report to the contrary early in the week¹, the United States has yet to secure allied support for an international naval effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports² indicate that Iran may be selectively allowing tanker passage in exchange for payment, effectively controlling access to the waterway.

Over the weekend, the U.S. President warned that Iran’s power infrastructure, including nuclear facilities, could be “obliterated”³ if the Strait is not reopened within 48 hours. That deadline is expected to pass on Monday. Iran responded by threatening to target U.S. infrastructure in the Gulf region should such action occur.

Inflation Surprises to the Upside, Rate Expectations Adjust

Inflation data came in stronger than expected, with February Producer Price Index (PPI⁴) rising +0.7% headline and +0.5% core, both above consensus estimates. The report dampened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.

As if on cue, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve held rates steady, while its updated dot plot reduced projected rate cuts for 2026 from two to one.⁵

Treasury markets reacted accordingly, with bonds selling off and yields moving higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 2.47% on the week.

Earnings, Limited but Constructive

While earnings season was relatively quiet, results were positive.

Micron Technology (MU) delivered strong results and raised forward guidance, reinforcing continued strength in AI-related demand.

Macy’s (M) reported solid results but offered mixed guidance. Williams-Sonoma (WSM) exceeded expectations and raised its outlook. FedEx (FDX) beat estimates and increased its 2026 guidance.

The Week Ahead

Monday
No major economic releases
Earnings: None

Tuesday
March S&P Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI
Earnings: KB Home (KBH)

Wednesday
No major economic releases
Earnings: None

Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: None

Friday
March final U.S. Consumer Sentiment
Earnings: Carnival Cruise (CCL)

Closing Perspective

Markets are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and evolving interest rate expectations in the near term. Elevated energy prices and persistent inflation pressures may continue to contribute to volatility. We remain focused on maintaining disciplined portfolio positioning while keeping portfolios aligned with long-term objectives. As always, we welcome the opportunity to connect—please reach out to your advisor if you would like to discuss your portfolio in greater detail.

Footnotes

¹ https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-latest-news-2026/card/trump-administration-plans-to-announce-coalition-to-escort-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-9LdhYdjGAX5CCnoWwSVa
² https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-shipping-route-strait-of-hormuz-b2942596.html
³ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/cnbc-daily-open-us-iran-hormuz-threats-oil-markets-trump.html
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ppi.asp
https://www.americancentury.com/insights/connecting-the-dots-fed-dot-plot-interest-rates/