Weekly Market Recap Week Ending May 8, 2026
Market Snapshot
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 49,609 | +110 (+0.22%) |
| Nasdaq | 26,247 | +1,133 (+4.50%) -- Record Close |
| S&P 500 | 7,398 | +168 (+2.32%) -- Record Close |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,077.10 | +37.87 (+1.25%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.364% | -1.4 bp (-0.32%) |
| WTI Crude | $94.68/bbl | -$7.26 (-7.12%) |
Groundhog Day All Over Again
After a week off, the blog returns to find things exactly where they were two weeks ago: markets climbing higher propelled by vague assurances of an impending end to the war in Iran and tech riding extraordinary earnings reports powered by the artificial intelligence super cycle.
NACHO
Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
Despite Defense Secretary Pistol Pete Hegseth stating midweek that the ceasefire with Iran remained intact, multiple attacks on shipping and naval vessels occurred throughout the week.1 Last Sunday, the President announced "Project Freedom," whereby the U.S. Navy would begin escorting commercial ships through the Strait. By Tuesday, the President paused "Project Freedom," declaring that "great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement" with Iran.2 The real reason, however, was that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had denied the U.S. operational access, making Project Freedom a non-starter.3
Sunday night, Iran vowed "to never bow" and presented a counterproposal to the U.S. peace plan, which the President promptly declared "totally unacceptable."4 So here we are, two weeks later: the "ceasefire" continues, no permanent agreement has been reached, the Strait remains closed, crude is trading nearly double its 2026 lows,5 and the markets are at record highs.
Economics & Earnings
The labor market remained resilient on the surface. Both ADP Private Payrolls and Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, and JOLTS showed more job openings in March than February. However, not all the news was positive. April U.S. Services surveys were weak, and preliminary May Consumer Sentiment registered a new low. Average hourly wages continued their march higher at +3.8% year-over-year, a trend that will do nothing to cool inflation concerns heading into this week's CPI and PPI reports.
First quarter earnings season continued at a torrid pace. Semiconductors were the week's real story, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) posting revenues up +38% year-over-year and the stock surging more than +26%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) rising +37% on AI-driven demand. Micron (MU) and Intel (INTC) rallied +37% and +25% respectively in sympathy with the broader sector move. Other notable beats came from Kraft Heinz (KHC), Uber (UBER), DoorDash (DASH), and McDonald's (MCD).
The Week Ahead
Inflation week. Both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be published, and both are expected to jump considerably. Gasoline will be a significant driver of the headline CPI number, but airline fares are likely to have a meaningful impact as well. With last week's strong labor data in hand, hot inflation prints will continue to pressure the Fed toward hiking rates rather than cutting them, the opposite of what markets are currently pricing. Should the Fed follow through, it would represent a significant headwind for equities. That said, if first quarter earnings momentum carries into the second and third quarters, and an eventual resolution to the war materializes, the impact may prove more manageable than markets currently fear.
With 89% of the S&P 500 having already reported, the results have been strong. Of those 445 companies, 84% beat earnings estimates and 80% beat revenue estimates.6 This week slows considerably. The only two companies to watch are dot-com era bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO) and current AI darling Applied Materials (AMAT).
- Monday -- N/A. Earnings: N/A.
- Tuesday -- April Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earnings: N/A.
- Wednesday -- April Producer Price Index (PPI). Earnings: Cisco Systems (CSCO).
- Thursday -- Initial Jobless Claims, April U.S. Retail Sales. Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT).
- Friday -- N/A. Earnings: N/A.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility are a normal part of investing, even when driven by uncertain or unexpected events. We continue to monitor developments closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
3 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/07/trump-project-freedom-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz
5 https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data