Iran Ceasefire MOU, Record Highs, and a Big Week for Labor Data
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,032 | +453 (+0.89%) — New Record Close |
| Nasdaq | 26,972 | +629 (+2.39%) — New Record Close |
| S&P 500 | 7,580 | +107 (+1.43%) — New Record Close |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,111.63 | +24.77 (+0.80%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.543% | -1.5 bp (-0.33%) |
| WTI Crude | $87.98/bbl | -$8.62 (-8.92%) |
The news is bordering on the ridiculous. Each week, the administration assures markets that the Iranian war will surely end soon, equities rally to new highs, oil sells off, and then reality rudely interrupts the narrative. This week was no different.
The "Peace Deal" (Still Waiting – It's Probably 2 Weeks Out!)
On Thursday, Axios reported a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days.¹ All three major U.S. indices set new record closes on both Thursday and Friday. However, Sunday night brought less optimistic news, as Israel expanded its offensive deeper into Lebanon despite the ceasefire.² WTI crude, which has been signaling an end to the war by trading down 12% over the prior two weeks, is having second thoughts, trading up 2.54% at the time of this writing.
Earnings Season All but Over
With 97% of the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter earnings, 85% of companies reported results above analyst estimates, well ahead of the five-year average of 78%.³
The Week Ahead
Of note on a very light earnings calendar is Broadcom (AVGO). The Street will be expecting another massive quarter to confirm that the AI trade continues in force. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) will lend another data point on the AI trade. Macy's (M) also reports and is interesting if only to check in on its restructuring attempt. Economic data is heavy this week, with final May readings for both U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private payrolls, and on Friday a full slate of labor data: May Non-Farm Payrolls, the U.S. Unemployment Rate, and U.S. Average Hourly Wages.
- Monday -- May Final S&P and ISM Manufacturing. Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).
- Tuesday -- April JOLTS. Earnings: None.
- Wednesday -- May ADP Private Payrolls. May Final S&P and ISM Services. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Macy's (M).
- Thursday -- Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: None.
- Friday -- May Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Average Hourly Wages. Earnings: None.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility are a normal part of investing, even when driven by uncertain or unexpected events. We continue to monitor developments closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
¹ https://www.axios.com/2026/05/28/iran-peace-deal-trump-approval
² https://www.npr.org/2026/05/31/g-s1-125056/israel-seizes-medieval-beaufort-castle-southern-lebanon
³ https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_052926A.pdf