Weekly Market Recap
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,564 | +362 (+0.71%) |
| Nasdaq | 26,517 | +629 (+2.43%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,500 | +69 (+0.93%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,124.53 | +21.51 (+0.69%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.451% | -3.6 bp (-0.80%) |
| WTI Crude | $76.99/bbl | -$7.30 (-8.66%) |
Market Recap 19 June
Equities finished higher on the week as a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding lifted sentiment, though hawkish signals from the new Fed chair kept the rally in check. Crude fell sharply, down nearly 9% on the week and roughly 14% over the past two weeks, as traders price in a faster-than-expected end to the conflict. SpaceX had a volatile week of its own, with the average post-IPO buyer now slightly better than breakeven.
Memorandum of Misunderstanding?
It seems no one told Israel that the MOU and ceasefire extension require it to vacate southern Lebanon. Israel struck targets in Lebanon over the weekend, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz...again. The U.S. quickly denied the Strait was closed. As of this writing, reports are surfacing that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days.
Markets are split. Dow futures are trading down slightly, and crude is also off. Crude traders, though, have been aggressively bullish on a rapid end to the war. WTI is down roughly 14% over the past two weeks.
Fed Surprisingly Hawkish
The Fed met last week and held rates steady, as expected. The surprise was in the dot plot: nine of the 19 members (only 12 vote) expect at least one rate hike this year.
New Fed chair Warsh did not contribute a dot to the chart, but his press conference jarred markets; he mentioned price stability more than a dozen times, a tone that stood in sharp contrast to his dovish comments prior to assuming the chair.¹
SpaceX IPO Update
SPCX continued its ascent early in the week, touching a high of $225 before closing up 14% at $185. The 5-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) of $181 represents the average price paid by the post-IPO investor, putting most retail buyers slightly better than breakeven.
The first earnings report is expected in late July or early August, after which between 20% and 30% of eligible insider shares will be unlocked. Option markets are pricing in a move of 97.5% in either direction.²
Week Ahead
Two events stand out this week. Micron Technology earnings will provide another AI trade data point, and the May Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report will deliver another read on inflation.
- Monday: No economic releases. Earnings: None.
- Tuesday: June S&P Flash U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI. Earnings: None.
- Wednesday: No economic releases. Earnings: Micron Technology (MU).
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, May PCE, May Durable Goods Orders, Q1 GDP Revision. Earnings: None.
- Friday: June Final Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: None.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility are a normal part of investing, even when driven by uncertain or unexpected events. We continue to monitor developments closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
¹ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2026/06/21/federal-reserve-kevin-warsh-changes/90620452007/
² https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-stock-overvalued-spcx-decline-ipo-lock-up-period-earnings-2026-6