Market Recap 18 September
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,682 | -891 (-1.70%) |
| Nasdaq | 26,522 | +189 (+0.72%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,650 | -6 (-0.08%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,194.03 | -51.06 (-1.57%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.998% | +2.3 bp (+0.46%) |
| WTI Crude (Oct) | $100.30/bbl | +$0.25 (+0.25%) |
AI Fears and Crude Spark Selloff but Markets Rally into Weekend
P(doom), the odds that AI ends badly for humanity, was the headline Monday, after Dario Amodei of Anthropic called on the industry to slow down and install guardrails, and Sam Altman and Elon Musk agreed.¹ Stocks sold off with considerable weakness in the PHLX (the semiconductor index), the picks and shovels of the AI buildout, which fell 5.9% on the day.² The Nasdaq lost a cumulative 353 points Monday through Wednesday. Oil prices didn’t help either, as WTI traded as high as $106 after attacks blamed on Iranian proxies in Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut a crude pipeline, and the Houthis gained ground along the Red Sea.³
By Friday the Fed hike was digested, yields had backed off their highs for the week, and WTI had given back its run to $106, closing the week flat at $100.30. The Nasdaq won back 542 points in two days and finished the week up 189, and the S&P finished flat.
The Dow fell 891 on the week, and Goldman Sachs alone was responsible for nearly 60% of it. The bank dropped roughly 8% after Bank of America warned that investment banking fees would fall, and Goldman CEO David Solomon then forecast softer fixed income trading.⁴
The Fed Finally Acts
As expected, Warsh’s Fed voted 12-0 on Wednesday to raise rates a quarter point, the first increase since 2023, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.⁵ At the press conference, Warsh said “inflation is too high, and has been for too long.”⁶ The Fed’s updated projections agree: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more quarter-point hike this year, and 4 see two.⁷
As of Sunday, CME FedWatch put the odds of at least one more hike by the December meeting at about 90%, and a 57% chance of a hike in October.⁸
The Week Ahead
- Monday – No reports of note. Earnings: None.
- Tuesday – No reports of note. Earnings: None.
- Wednesday – September Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI. Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for a bilateral summit with President Trump.⁹ Earnings: None.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings: None.
- Friday – August Durable Goods. September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: None.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.
Disclaimer: this is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned above. Investing involves risk and the potential loss of principal.
Footnotes
¹ https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tumble-ai-leaders-warning-slowdown-ipos-amodei-altman-rcna597643
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/business/ai-stocks-slide-slowdown-development-amodei-altman-intl
² https://www.thestreet.com/technology/musk-amodei-altman-ai-slowdown-chip-selloff
³ https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/26/09/61801030/wti-crude-oil-106-highest-since-may-saudi-pipeline-shut
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/attack-on-key-saudi-pipeline-is-blamed-on-iran-backed-militias-in-iraq
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/19/attacks-choke-off-saudi-oil-kingdom-confronts-limits-trumps-friendship/
⁴ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/bank-of-america-bac-q3-investment-banking-fees.html
https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61777356/quick-spark-big-bank-stocks-tumble-after-moynihans-grim-outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-stock-falls-after-ceo-warns-of-softer-trading-4872065
⁵ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
⁶ https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/16/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-september
⁷ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
⁸ CME FedWatch Tool, accessed 20 September 2026:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html