Market Recap 25 September
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,828 | +146 (+0.28%) |
| Nasdaq | 27,068 | +546 (+2.06%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,743 | +93 (+1.21%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,148.63 | -45.40 (-1.42%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 5.18% | +18.2bp (+3.64%) |
| WTI Crude (Nov) | $92.41/bbl | -$3.67 (-3.82%) |
Tech Rescues the Markets
The Dow was down 332 points through Thursday and headed for a fourth straight weekly loss, until a 479 point Friday rally led by Microsoft turned it to +146. The Nasdaq did the heavy lifting all week, up 2.06%, and pulled the S&P 500 out of a two-week skid.¹
Amid the handwringing over slowing AI capex, five forecasts put 2027 spending between $1.2 trillion and $1.4 trillion, up 50% to 75% from roughly $800 billion in 2026. Three are from the sell side (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS), and the others are S&P Global Ratings and Nvidia CFO Colette Kress.²
WTI Prices Recede
Oil futures fell Monday on hopes for a diplomatic solution after Trump said he was open to meeting Iran's president. WTI finished the week down 3.82% as the Saudi East-West pipeline restarted and Middle East crude exports hit their highest level since the war began.³
However, at the time of this writing, Trump has rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi air defenses have shot down Houthi missiles and drones, and WTI futures are up 1.73%.⁴
Yields Surge
The bond market is forcing the Fed's hand. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.00% to 5.18% this week, its highest level since 2007. CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a quarter-point hike in October at 68.1%, up from 17.7% one month ago, and the odds of two hikes by the December meeting at 56.6%.⁵
Wednesday did the damage: a flash PMI of 58.4, the highest since July 2021, and a weak $70 billion 5-year auction sent the 10-year as high as 5.13%, its biggest one-day jump since April 2025. Fed Governor Michael Barr also said more hikes are likely.⁶
The Week Ahead
It is a very busy week ahead. Multiple employment reports land: the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, and Non-Farm Payrolls to end the week. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, will be published Wednesday, and September manufacturing data comes out Thursday.
Earnings season is still two weeks out, but the entire Street will be focused on memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology (MU) when it reports Wednesday, and turnaround story Nike (NKE) reports Thursday. Both report after the close.
- Monday – No reports of note. Earnings: None.
- Tuesday – August JOLTS. Earnings: None.
- Wednesday – September ADP Private Payrolls, Q2 GDP (third estimate), August PCE. Earnings: Micron Technology (MU).
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, September ISM Manufacturing Survey. Earnings: Nike (NKE).
- Friday – September Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate. Earnings: None.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
² https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/morgan-stanley-sees-cloud-spending-160442995.html
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4644612-goldman-sachs-expects-us-hyperscaler-capex-to-reach-14t-by-2027
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/goldman-sees-hyperscaler-ai-capex-rising-50-to-1-2-trillion
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-now-expects-ai-capex-045010541.html
https://press.spglobal.com/2026-08-27-AI-Infrastructure-Investment-To-Exceed-1-3-Trillion-By-2027,-S-P-Global-Ratings-Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidias-real-story-isnt-beat-223453239.html
³ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/iran-us-oil-prices-crude-saudi-arabia-.html
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-22/saudi-arabia-restarts-east-west-oil-pipeline-to-resume-exports-from-yanbu-sources-say
https://www.arabtimesonline.com/news/middle-east-oil-exports-rebound-to-highest-level-since-iran-war-began-reuters/
⁴ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6113670-trump-rejects-iranian-ceasefire/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-26/trump-says-he-rejected-latest-iran-proposal-to-reopen-hormuz
https://www.npr.org/2026/09/26/nx-s1-5981990/trump-rejects-iranian-deal-strait-of-hormuz
https://www.arabnews.com/saudi-arabia/coalition-defenses-thwart-houthi-missile-and-drone-attack-on-riyadh-khamis-mushayt-3003209
⁵ CME FedWatch Tool, accessed 27 September 2026:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/26/10-year-treasury-yield-is-at-its-highest-in-19-years-how-we-got-here.html
⁶ https://signaturefd.com/blog/the-market-brief-9-25-26/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/market-sees-next-fed-hike-in-october-following-barr-comments-hot-inflation.html
https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/october-fed-rate-hike-odds-jump-to-nearly-70-as-fed-s-barr-says-more-tightening-is-likely/cZM7mivRBB0
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