Weekly Market Recap

Market Snapshot

War Update

Markets were whipsawed by conflicting messaging from the U.S. administration throughout the week. On Monday, a report surfaced¹ that the President would be willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That same day, the President indicated that meaningful progress had been made toward ending military operations in Iran².

On Tuesday, markets rallied sharply, building on Monday’s dovish messaging as well as further comments from the President indicating the Iran war could be over in “2-3 weeks”³.

In stark contrast to the more conciliatory tone earlier in the week, the President escalated rhetoric on Wednesday in a nationally televised address, threatening to “bring Iran back to the stone ages”⁴.

Mixed messaging continued into the weekend. In an expletive laden social media post⁵, the President threatened to target Iranian infrastructure if the Strait is not fully reopened to commercial traffic by Tuesday at 20:00 EST. Earlier that same day, however, he expressed optimism in an interview that a deal with Iran could be reached as soon as Monday.

Crude oil prices moved sharply higher amid the uncertainty, with WTI rising $12.42 per barrel on the week to settle just above $112. For context, WTI closed at $49 per barrel on January 27, 2026.

Economic Data

Economic data came in broadly constructive, though not without areas of concern. March Non-Farm Payrolls and ADP Private Payrolls both rebounded from February levels. The unemployment rate declined from 4.4% to 4.3%, though the move was partially driven by a decrease in labor force participation.

March Consumer Confidence exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims declined, the ISM Manufacturing Survey came in above consensus, and February U.S. Retail Sales were strong.

Offsetting some of this strength, job openings declined month over month, the S&P Services PMI disappointed, indicating some softness in the services sector, and average hourly wages continued to outpace inflation, rising 3.5%.

Week Ahead

Monday
March ISM Services Survey
Earnings: none

Tuesday
February Durable Goods Orders
Earnings: none

Wednesday
Federal Reserve March meeting minutes
Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ)

Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, February Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE
Earnings: none

Friday
March Consumer Price Index, CPI
Earnings: none

Closing Perspective

As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility, particularly those driven by rapidly shifting geopolitical developments, can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.

Footnotes

¹ https://apple.news/AMQAfJXD5QZKdS7CByYZs5A
² https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
³ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
⁴ https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-stone-age-bombing-b2950890.html
⁵ https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116351998782539414