| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 52,215 | +297 (+0.57%) |
| Nasdaq | 25,955 | -466 (-1.77%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,623 | -77 (-1.01%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,074.49 | -47.55 (-1.52%) |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.988% | -11.4bp (-2.23%) |
| WTI (Nov) | $103.27 | +$5.87 (+6.03%) |
Market Recap 23 October
It was another tough week for the markets, with only the Dow finishing higher, helped along by 3M. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and international stocks all fell, the 10-year yield dropped to just below 5% in a flight to safety trade, and oil climbed 6% on fears of renewed attacks in the Middle East.
Hyperscalers and Capex
Meta beat and raised revenue, lifted the low end of its 2026 capex range, and announced a 2-for-1 stock split. It gave no 2027 capex number.¹ A negative cash flow disclosure on the same call sent the Nasdaq down 694 points on Thursday, and the AI trade was given up for dead (again), even though Nvidia's CFO told analysts in August that capex by the top five hyperscalers will rise from nearly $800 billion this year to $1.3 trillion in 2027.² S&P Global Research and several large banks also expect capex to grow at least 50% next year, and Jensen Huang said he sees no sign of a 2029 memory glut.³ Lam Research fell 7.45% on soft Q2 guidance, and IBM and Western Digital both traded down after the close despite beating, with WDC also raising guidance and its dividend by 17%. Good news got sold all week.
Iran
WTI crossed back above $100 on Thursday after the New York Times reported that U.S. and Israeli forces will renew strikes on Iran once the November midterms are over.⁴ WTI rose another 3.1% on Friday to $103.27 on the same reports.⁵ The strikes, it seems, are scheduled around the election calendar.
Inflation and the Fed
Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000 against a consensus of 200,000, so the labor market is holding up. Consumers are not: University of Michigan sentiment stayed near record lows at 48, one-year inflation expectations rose a tenth to 4.7%, and five-year expectations rose a tenth to 3.5%. The Fed meets this week with WTI above $100 and consumers expecting prices to keep climbing.
Earnings
SpaceX (SPCX) rose 8% after beating Q3 revenue and earnings expectations, and said it formed a committee to examine a merger with Tesla (TSLA). 3M (MMM) gained more than 5% after beating and raising its full-year EPS guidance. General Motors (GM) fell 7% despite a Q3 beat, higher free cash flow guidance and a new $20bn buyback. Netflix (NFLX) dropped 5% on in-line revenue, United Airlines (UAL) missed on both lines, and Southwest (LUV) cut its 2026 outlook and blamed higher fuel prices. Tesla (TSLA) beat despite declining auto revenue and gained 3.41% in extended trading.
The Week Ahead
This is a huge week for the markets for both economic and earnings reports. The Fed announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday and Thursday brings September PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Consumers already expect 4.7% inflation over the next year with WTI back above $100, so the market will be extremely focused on Chair Warsh's press conference. The three remaining hyperscalers will inform whether the AI trade is dead or alive when Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday, and when Amazon reports Thursday. Chevron and Exxon close out the week on Friday, and with WTI up approximately 88% from its December low of $54.98, they should be swimming in revenues and earnings.⁶
- Monday - None. Earnings: None.
- Tuesday - September Durable Goods Orders. Earnings: Boeing (BA), Coca-Cola (KO), United Parcel Service (UPS), Seagate Technology (STX).
- Wednesday - FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Press Conference. Earnings: GE Vernova (GEV), Alphabet (GOOGL), Ford (F), FedEx (FDX), Microsoft (MSFT).
- Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims, September Personal Consumption Expenditures. Earnings: Caterpillar (CAT), Ferrari (RACE), Amazon (AMZN), Rivian (RIVN), Sandisk (SNDK), Starbucks (SBUX).
- Friday - None. Earnings: Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM).
Closing Perspective
Weeks like this one are why long-term plans are built to withstand volatility. Headlines move prices in the short run, and decisions made in reaction to them rarely hold up. If you're wondering how any of this affects your own situation, please reach out to us and we'll be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Footnotes
³ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/jensen-huang-nvidia-memory-selloff-shortage.html
⁴ https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-israel-drawing-plans-resume-attacks-iran-post/story?id=137479897
⁵ https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil/news/594756
⁶ https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data
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