Indices
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 50,579 | +1,053 (+2.13%) — new record close |
| Nasdaq | 26,343 | +118 (+0.45%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,473 | +65 (+0.88%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,086.86 | +61.96 (+2.05%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.558% | -3.7bp (-0.81%) |
| WTI Crude Oil | $96.60/bbl | -$4.42 (-4.38%) |
Equity markets rallied, bond yields retreated, and crude oil prices fell on continued anticipation of an Iran peace deal. Walmart (WMT) raised some concerns, but Nvidia reported exceptional results and the markets oohed and aahed over the coming super-IPO of SpaceX.
The "Peace Deal"
During the week and over the weekend there were multiple reports that negotiators were closing in on an Iranian peace deal. However, the reports leaking from the talks detail a complete U.S. capitulation; cessation of hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing billions in Iranian assets and promises of future negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.² For those of you scoring at home, President Obama's JCPOA provided stronger safeguards without draining the treasury of $25 billion,¹ killing soldiers and civilians, and sending gas prices through the roof. Of course, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in his first term.
Earnings
Nvidia (NVDA) reported and helped calm any fears that the semiconductor-led rally may have run its course. The AI chip design firm beat earnings and revenue estimates and, importantly, margins were in line with expectations. NVDA also announced an $80 billion stock buyback program, increased its dividend by 2,400%³ and raised guidance. Walmart (WMT) beat its revenue projections, and its earnings were in line with expectations. However, management lowered guidance and noted that higher gasoline prices are stressing the consumer; for the first time since 2022 customers' average gasoline purchase has fallen below 10 gallons.⁴
SpaceX IPO
The hype machine is in full force as the S-1 for the SpaceX IPO was released. Amongst the incredible claims...
- SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at roughly $28.5 trillion, with AI enterprise applications alone representing $22.7 trillion of that figure. U.S. GDP is roughly $30 trillion.
- At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at approximately 94 times 2025 revenue.
- SpaceX's most recent tender offer in December 2025 priced shares at roughly $421 each, implying a valuation of about $800 billion. The IPO target range is now $1.75 to $2 trillion. That is a doubling in valuation in under six months. There has been no fundamental business development to justify that move.
- SpaceX was profitable with $791 million net income prior to the merger with xAI. In 2025, after the merger, the company recorded a $4.94 billion net loss. In Q1 2026 alone, the loss was $4.28 billion (in a single quarter!).
- In Q1 2026, SpaceX spent $7.7 billion on AI infrastructure against $1 billion for space and $1.3 billion for Starlink. The balance sheet carries $23.85 billion in servers and networking and $14 billion in construction in progress. Meanwhile, the filing explicitly states that future growth depends heavily on technologies and markets that do not yet exist at commercial scale, including orbital AI infrastructure and massive space-based compute systems powered by solar energy. The underwriters are pricing in a technology that SpaceX itself admits hasn't been built.
- The fix is in. Both the Nasdaq⁵ and S&P 500⁶ are changing their rules to include SpaceX in their indices despite the firm not meeting the indices' historical rules. There are estimates that this could result in index funds and active managers benchmarked to those indices consuming as much as 48% of the available float.⁷
The Week Ahead
It's a short holiday week with an even shorter list of economic data and earnings. The highlight is Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation will be an important data point to either confirm or refute the recent hot CPI and PPI readings.
- Monday -- Market Closed in Observance of Memorial Day. Earnings: No releases.
- Tuesday -- May Consumer Confidence. Earnings: No releases.
- Wednesday -- No releases. Earnings: Salesforce (CRM).
- Thursday -- Initial Jobless Claims, April Durable Goods Orders. Earnings: Costco (COST).
- Friday -- Q1 GDP (second revision). April PCE. Earnings: No releases.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility are a normal part of investing, even when driven by uncertain or unexpected events. We continue to monitor developments closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
² https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/23/world/us-iran-war-trump
³ https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidia-just-raised-dividend-2-013100157.html
⁴ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/walmart-wmt-earnings-q1-2027.html
⁵ https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/elon-musks-spacex-could-fast-180121306.html
⁶ https://www.etfstream.com/articles/spacex-to-ipo-on-nasdaq-after-index-rules-adjusted-reports
⁷ https://coinfomania.com/spacex-ipo-could-force-index-funds-to-buy-19-of-its-float/