Strait Remains Closed, Markets Pivot to Earnings

Market Snapshot

Ceasefire Continues

The President, in a move surprising no one, extended the ceasefire with Iran, supposedly at the behest of the Pakistani government.1 Yet the Strait of Hormuz, which prior to the beginning of hostilities was completely open, remains closed. On Sunday, the President canceled the return to Islamabad of our crack negotiating team, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran helpfully clarified that they had no plans to meet with U.S. representatives regardless.2

Oil Markets

The prior week's selloff in crude was driven by the President's repeated assurances that the conflict would be over "pretty soon." The market took him at his word. With no negotiations now scheduled, the Strait still closed, and no visible path to resolution, WTI crude climbed over 12% on the week and with today's developments is now trading above $95/bbl. This week's move was simply a return to the realities of the situation.

Tech Back in Focus

Intel (INTC), which started the year at $39/share, had already run 69% YTD before Thursday's earnings call. Intel smashed earnings expectations, beat revenues, announced a new 14a3 chip manufacturing deal with Tesla (TSLA), and stated there were more unannounced 14a customers in place. INTC popped an additional 20% post close and finished the week up 109% year to date. After a first quarter where AI and tech fell out of favor, both are firmly back in focus with seven companies, all deeply involved in Artificial Intelligence, posting all-time highs dating back to their IPOs; Amazon (AMZN), Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Micron Technology (MU).4

Economics

March U.S. Retail Sales beat expectations, though much of the increase was attributable to rising gasoline costs rather than broad consumer strength; core retail sales were solid but the headline number should be taken in that context. The April manufacturing reports also exhibited strength. On the other side of the ledger, April Consumer Sentiment dropped to a record low, with 12-month inflation expectations rising to 4.7%,5 most likely in direct response to the economic pressures consumers are facing at the pump.

Thursday's March Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be the week's key risk event. Regardless of the print, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. A reading above 3%, however, would further limit the Fed's options later in the year. Given market expectations of a late year cut and current market complacency toward oil prices and the Iran war, considerable volatility later this year should not be a surprise.

Earnings

First quarter earnings have been encouraging so far. Of the 87 S&P 500 companies that had reported through the middle of last week, 81% posted an earnings beat while 76% reported better than expected revenue. There is, however, a warning light flashing; multiple airlines reported last week and each one pulled their forward guidance, citing rising fuel costs.

Looking ahead, five of the Magnificent Seven report this week. Their results, which should be extremely positive given the earnings reports from ASML, TSM, and INTC, have the potential to overshadow any inflation concern barring a meaningful escalation in the Middle East,

The Week Ahead

April Consumer Confidence, March Durable Goods, and the FOMC interest rate decision are just the appetizers for the economic docket this week. The showstopper will be Thursday's March Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

It is a huge earnings week. Amongst a handful of consumer firms, auto manufacturers, and the integrated energy companies, five of the Magnificent Seven are reporting; Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Monday - No major economic releases. Earnings: N/A.
• Tuesday - April Consumer Confidence. Earnings: Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM), United Parcel Service (UPS), Seagate Technology (STX), Visa (V).
• Wednesday - March Durable Goods Orders, FOMC interest rate decision, Fed Chair Powell Press Conference. Earnings: Yum Brands (YUM), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and Ford (F).
• Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 US GDP, March PCE. Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Caterpillar (CAT), Rivian (RIVN), Western Digital (WDC).
• Friday - April S&P and ISM Manufacturing. Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).

Closing Perspective

As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility, particularly those driven by rapidly shifting geopolitical developments, can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.

Footnotes

1 https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-pakistan-april-21-2026-177a2d0701ef172c3e51686bc1f18f30
2 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/25/iran-says-no-meeting-with-us-negotiators-planned-in-pakistan.html
3 https://www.pcmag.com/news/intel-14a-chip-technology-tested-by-clients-boost-cpu-speed-turbo-cells
4 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
5 https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-near-four-year-low-april-2026-04-24/
6 https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/22/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

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Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, ACHR, BITB, ETHE, ITIB, MSFT, NVDA, RIVN, and TCPC.