Weekly Market Recap
Market Snapshot
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 46,558 | -943 (-1.99%) |
| Nasdaq | 22,105 | -282 (-1.26%) |
| S&P 500 | 6,632 | -108 (-1.60%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 2,896.77 | -22.85 (-0.78%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.285% | +12.7 bp (+3.05%) |
| WTI Crude | $98.55/bbl | +$8.22 (+8.98%) |
Key Developments
U.S. Campaign in Iran Continues
The U.S. bombing campaign against selected targets in Iran continued last week, including strikes near the country’s key export facilities on Kharg Island.
Notably, while military targets were struck, critical oil infrastructure appears to have been left largely unharmed, suggesting the strikes were calibrated to pressure Iran’s leadership to open the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding a direct disruption to global oil supply.
Iran exports roughly 90% of its crude oil (approximately 1.5 million barrels per day) through Kharg Island, making the facility one of the most strategically important energy terminals in the region.
Oil Surges as Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to normal tanker traffic, crude oil resumed its rally. Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.
A coalition of countries, including the United States, announced plans to release 572 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, but markets largely shrugged off the move.
On Thursday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the U.S. Navy currently cannot safely escort tankers through the Strait. The administration is expected to announce an international naval coalition later this week to escort commercial shipping through the passage.
Should that occur, oil prices may stabilize near the $100 level, though continued disruption could push prices higher.
Economic Data
Economic data released during the week was generally flat to slightly weaker.
Inflation
February CPI: +2.4% YoY, unchanged from the previous month
Core CPI: +2.5% YoY, also unchanged
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure showed mixed results:
Headline PCE: slightly lower
Core PCE: +3.1% YoY, up one-tenth from the prior month
Growth
Fourth-quarter GDP was revised sharply lower, from +1.4% to +0.7% in the first revision.
Labor & Manufacturing
Job openings increased by 200,000
January durable goods orders were flat
Overall, the data suggests economic momentum is slowing modestly while inflation remains sticky.
Week Ahead
Monday
Nvidia GPU Technology Conference
Tuesday
No major economic releases
Wednesday
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Earnings:
Macy’s, Williams-Sonoma, Micron Technology
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings:
FedEx
Friday
No major economic releases
Closing Perspective
Markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, energy prices, and upcoming Federal Reserve guidance. In response to current market conditions, we will be tactically rebalancing positions within tax-deferred accounts in the coming days. As always, our focus remains on maintaining disciplined portfolio positioning while navigating near-term volatility and keeping portfolios aligned with long-term objectives.
P.S. If you know of any friends or family members who could benefit from our services and these types of communiques during these unique times, we are accepting new clients and offer a complimentary one-hour review.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed above. I personally, or a family member whose account I control, have positions in the following securities/assets...Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BITB, ETHE, ITIB, NVDA, RIVN.