Market Snapshot
| Index / Asset | Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,202 | +366 (+0.66%) |
| Nasdaq | 25,888 | +179 (+0.69%) |
| S&P 500 | 7,431 | -42 (-0.57%) |
| MSCI EAFE | 3,103.02 | +29.31 (+0.95%) |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury | 4.487% | -4.9bp (-1.08%) |
| WTI Crude | $84.29/bbl | -$5.95 (-6.59%) |
Market Recap 12 June
Sunday night brought breaking news that the Iran war is ending, SpaceX successfully launched their IPO, and inflation is the guest that won't leave the party.
War Ending?
At the time of this writing, Dow Jones futures are trading up nearly 1% on the news that Iran and the United States have agreed on terms to end the conflict. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif said that the official signing ceremony would occur on Friday in Switzerland. WTI crude is down another 5.65% to $80.07, adding to Friday's slide to $84.29, in the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will open shortly.
SpaceX IPO Launches
The much-anticipated SpaceX IPO successfully launched on Friday. The deal priced at $135/share and closed up 19% at $160.95. Of the investment banks that didn't underwrite the offering¹, two initiated coverage with very bearish reports: CFRA came in with a rare Sell rating and a $115 price target, and Morningstar valued the company at $63/share.
Inflation Hot
Overshadowed by seemingly daily assurances that peace was at hand as well as the eagerly awaited SPCX IPO, inflation received very little scrutiny despite a week of ugly inflation data on both the retail and wholesale side. Headline CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest it has been since April 2023.²
While Core CPI (ex-food and energy) was not as bad at 2.9% YoY, it is difficult to find a socio-economic cohort that is not compelled to buy both of those excluded sectors. Wholesale prices were even worse: the headline number was up 6.5% YoY, the highest since November 2022. Core PPI was up 5.1% YoY.³
With the end of the war pending, crude oil prices should continue to slowly decline as shipping begins to navigate the Strait unencumbered. However, expecting oil prices to retrace their pre-war buildup levels to mid $50/bbl is unrealistic, and prices at the pump are notoriously sticky on the way down.
The imminent peace deal also makes new Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference a must-watch. His preference for rate cuts despite rising inflation is well known. He's only one of twelve votes on the committee, but will he use the end of the war as cover to argue inflation will head lower, and start pushing for cuts immediately?
The Week Ahead
It's a short week, light on earnings, but the Fed takes center stage. While the central bank is overwhelmingly expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the financial press eagerly awaits the new Fed Chair's first press conference. All U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Juneteenth.⁴
- Monday – None. Earnings: None.
- Tuesday – None. Earnings: None.
- Wednesday – May U.S. Retail Sales, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Warsh Press Conference. Earnings: None.
- Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, May Producer Price Index (PPI). Earnings: None.
- Friday – U.S. Market Closed in Observance of Juneteenth.
Closing Perspective
As always, our role is to look beyond the headlines and remain focused on what matters most for your long-term plan. Periods of volatility, particularly those driven by rapidly shifting geopolitical developments, can feel unsettling, but they are a normal part of investing. We continue to monitor conditions closely and will make thoughtful adjustments where appropriate. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your portfolio in more detail, we welcome the conversation.
Footnotes
¹ The 23 investment banks that served as underwriters for the IPO (such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) are subject to a regulatory minimum ten day "quiet period" that temporarily prevents them from publishing formal ratings.
² https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html